Coronavius ​​Second Wave; Foreign Brokerage Houses Reduced India (GDP) Growth Rate | Foreign brokerage houses reduced India’s growth rate, half a dozen changed growth estimates


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  • Coronavius Second Wave; Foreign Brokerage Houses Reduced India (GDP) Growth Rate

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  • All estimates of GDP are between 10 and 12%.
  • There is a possibility of a return to activity in the quarter of July to September

Foreign brokerage houses have lowered their estimates regarding the country’s growth rate due to the ever increasing corona case and lockdown. Nearly half a dozen brokerage houses have lowered their earlier estimates. All are estimated to be between 10 and 12% of GDP.

Goldman said the growth rate will be 11.1%

Regarding the growth rate of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), Goldman Sachs estimates that it may remain between 11.1% between 2021 March and 2022 April. Whereas earlier it was estimated at 11.7%. Similarly Nomura had earlier projected a growth rate of 13.5%, which has now been reduced to 12.6%. JP Morgan reduced the estimate to 13% to 11%, while UBS reduced the estimate to 11.5% to 10%. The city had projected a growth rate of 12.5%. This has brought it down to 12%.

Reserve Bank Estimate of 10.5%

Apart from these, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has predicted a growth rate of 10.5% in this current financial year. While the IMF ie 12.5% ​​and the World Bank has predicted a growth rate of 10.1%. From all these estimates, it seems that despite this deadly spread of Corona, the country’s growth rate can be more than 10% in this financial year.

GDP is already falling from Corona

The country’s GDP was already in decline before Corona. Its growth rate was 8.3% in FY 2016-17, from 6.8 in 2017-2018 and 6.5% in 2018-2019. It was 4% in 2019-20. Between 2020 April to 2021 March, the economy was predicted to fall by 8%.

Lockdown is on the rise

The incidence of frequent lockdowns of cities in the country is increasing. At the same time, the effect of corona is also happening rapidly. India is among the worst in the world in new cases. Nearly 3.5 lakh new cases are coming to Corona every day. While 2.25 lakh deaths have been done. Though the Modi government is avoiding nationwide lockdown so far, Corona’s team has advocated a complete lockdown.

Cities like Delhi, Mumbai are more affected

Several states and cities in the country including Mumbai, Delhi, Bihar are already in lockdown. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka account for 20% of the total active cases of corona. However till a few weeks ago it was up to 60%. Goldman Sachs said that although the lockdown this year is still light compared to last year. Its effect is not as much as it was the last time.

Goldman said medical infrastructure is still under pressure in many large cities. Because there is a shortage of medical oxygen, blood plasma, medicines and beds in hospitals.

Corona may increase further in mid-May

The government’s medical panel has estimated that by the middle of May the country may have 5 lakh corona cases a day. Talking about the vaccine, about 13% of the population in the country has got the first dose vaccine. Whereas 2.73 crore people have also got second dose. Till two weeks ago, 33 lakh people used to get the vaccine daily, which has now come down to 23 lakh. This is because the production of the vaccine is getting delayed due to lack of raw materials.

75 lakh people unemployed in April

A total of 75 lakh people have been unemployed in the country in April. According to CMIE data, employment has been badly affected in April and something similar may also be seen in May. Cases of new employment are also declining. Goldman Sachs said that most of the indicators are saying that the effect of this lockdown and corona will be seen on the country’s GDP.

The lockdown has resulted in a decline in e-way bills, mobility, rail fares and cargo traffic. This will have a direct impact on the country’s growth rate. However, activity is expected to return in the July-September quarter.

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